AISL Executive Summary
Avec un score AISL ajusté de 15.9/100, Somalia se classe dans la catégorie « hautement restrictif ». Le marché de l'assurance y pesait 6 millions $ en 2025, pour une pénétration de 0.1% du PIB. Une cession obligatoire s'applique aux réassureurs étrangers (Non determine avec certitude). Le marché applique par ailleurs plusieurs mécanismes complémentaires : un droit de premier refus au bénéfice du réassureur local et une exigence de capacité locale.
Summary written from available AISL data, some of which is estimated due to a lack of official public sources. Not an opinion, a starting point for analysis.
Economy
Capital
Mogadiscio
Population
Not documented
GDP
$12.2 B
Currency
SOS
Insurance market
Market size
$6 M
Penetration
0.1%
Density / capita
Not documented
Growth (GDP proxy)
3.7%
Regulatory framework
Regulatory openness
Highly RestrictiveCompulsory cession
Yes
Non determine avec certitude
Active friction mechanisms
3 / 7
Reference year
2025
AISL Score
Market with limited public documentation: underlying market data relies partly or fully on estimation, due to a lack of accessible official figures. Should be treated with caution.
Base score
26.1
Adjusted score (friction)
15.9
Regulatory access
58/100
Methodology breakdown
AISL recommendation: AVOID / HIGH RISK
AISL Score Badge
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Similar markets
Structurally close profiles to Somalia, computed on market size, growth, sector structure, environment and founder judgment.
Market (2025)
Total premiums
$6.1M
Penetration
0.1%
Density / capita
Not documented
Growth
—
Number of insurers
—
International comparison
This market is -99% versus the OECD average (6.2% of GDP, 2024) and -99% versus the average across all reporting jurisdictions (5.4%, 2024).
Source: OECD, Global Insurance Market Trends 2025. These averages cover jurisdictions reporting to the OECD, not an exhaustive global sample.
Source: Estimation - marche assurantiel quasi inexistant, secteur informel dominant, economie fragile, juillet 2026
Macroeconomic context (2024)
GDP
$12.2 B
GDP growth
3.7%
Population
—
Inflation
4.0%
Currency
SOS
Source: IMF WEO DataMapper API
Regulatory mechanisms
Non determine avec certitude
Source: Estimation par defaut - PAS de source GRF dediee, PAS de donnees sectorielles fiables disponibles
What this market requires at entry
3 active regulatory mechanisms on this market, with what each one concretely means for entering Somalia.
"What If" Simulator
Each active friction mechanism removes 3.4 points from this market's score (base score: 26.1, before regulatory friction). Uncheck a mechanism below to simulate its removal and see how many points this market would regain — using the exact AISL scoring formula.
Simulated score
15.9
3 mechanisms active (3 × 3.4 = −10.2 pts)
Active reinsurers
9 reinsurers (national + regional operating in this zone), 2021 revenue in USD millions
| Reinsurer | Scope | Revenue 2021 (M$) | Net income (M$) | Observed growth | 2022(est.) | 2023(est.) | 2024(est.) | 2025(est.) | 2026(est.) | 2027(est.) | 2028(est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana Re - Kenya | Regional | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zep Re - Zimbabwe | Regional | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zep Re | Regional | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CICA - Re | Regional | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Waica Re - Kenya | Regional | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WAICA Re - Zimbabwe | Regional | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zep Re (PTA Reinsurance Co) | Regional | 213.0 | 18.1 | +2.3% | 218.0 | 223.0 | 228.0 | 233.2 | 238.6 | 244.0 | 249.6 |
| CICA-RE | Regional | 176.2 | 13.4 | +11.3% | 196.1 | 218.3 | 243.0 | 270.6 | 301.3 | 335.5 | 373.7 |
| WAICA Re | Regional | 153.3 | 19.9 | +49.5% | 229.5 | 343.3 | 513.5 | 768.1 | 1148.9 | 1719.1 | 2572.0 |
Source: Atlas Magazine, Reinsurance Yearbook 2023. Last real data available: fiscal year 2021 (left-hand columns). The "2028 revenue (estimated)" column, in italic gray, is a projection based solely on the growth rate observed between 2020 and 2021 (capped between -30% and +50%/year); this is not an observed figure and should be treated with caution, particularly for companies with volatile or negative net income.
AISL Summary
- AISL positioning: 16/100, "Highly Restrictive" market.
- Insurance market: $6M, fiscal year 2025.
- Main entry barrier: compulsory cession (Non determine avec certitude).
- Sits 14.7 points below the regional average (17 scored markets).
Regional comparison
Average adjusted score in East Africa : 30.6 (out of 17 scored markets)
Somalia is 14.7 points below the regional average